The 7-year Cycle of World Economy

The Oil-Crisis 1973 had been my first witness of an economic downturn. As Semiconductor Physics engineer the burst of Japan’s bubble economy in 1980 deemed to invalidate my Japanese language studies – 1987 the U$ Exchange rate halved in the wake of Black Monday’s Stock Market Crash. 1994 Fortune Magazine commented with “The Great Bond Massacre” started out on Wall Street Bonds but spread into mortgage treasuries and tapped European bonds consecutively. All of these events had come at surprise and triggered economic downturns that affected my former materials business within 18 months, practically across all industry sectors, from consumer goods through automotive, household appliances to real estate and finally capital goods industries for the various sectors like exploration, chemical processing, automation, aviation, telecom back-bone whether terrestrial, under sea or in space. And every time all my customers from all these industries were panicking, building up ever higher waves of disruption upstream their supply chains, breaking up human capital aggregations often scattering unrepairable, causing real damage to industry positions in certain disciplines. Although in reality none of this would have been necessary.

Now how to qualify Brexit? From my personal point of observation it didn’t come at a surprise and actually almost one year later than the 7 year cycle would suggest a triggering event. So it could very well be that Brexit was already a consequence of a 2015 triggering event, yet hushed up? In the EU we had an earlier referendum in July 2015 where 61% of Greeks across all counties refused the EU Troika’s bailout conditions in the country’s government-debt crisis. A democratic vote that was suppressed by EU finance ministers’ spin doctors’ almost cynically, compelling Greek’s chancellor by all kind of scare tactics and threats until Alexis Tsipras and his peoples were humiliated to give in. With no more room for contingencies and absolutely no further support in dealing with Syrian war refugees – kicking off the wave-through practice spreading hopes across all MENA and Central Asia’s underprivileged, to try their chances for a relocation to Europe. Peaking of course, when the German chancellor publicly held out to welcome every one of them. I don’t think she said that to compensate for her finance minister’s duress in Greek bailout negotiations. But many more followed the invitation, which’s consequences not even Germany’s Free-State of Bavaria accepted. So why should other EU-Member States solve the refugee scope kicked off by the German chancellor’s unilateral general invitation to an unprecedented magnitude now being prompted for solidarity by Germany which doesn’t even show it across its own Federation?

Of course Brexit was supported by observers of all this hegemonic German EU image policies, perceived to the burden of other members. From my long term former business relations with English customers contributing to my highest export share during many years, I know their susceptibility to German paternalism has always been being significant. So Brexit is not a trigger but already a consequence of fatally undemocratic power games in EU politics, nobody talks about. Just imagine how demeaned Greeks must feel after Germany’s chancellor delivered substantial EU refugee aid-funds to Turkey that may have enabled Greece a year ago to prevent the now escalated immigrant situation for Europe. At what time this will be admitted and how it could be remedied will have more influence on Europe’s future than the Brexit itself. Announced catastrophes rarely happen – it is rather the hidden agendas and not admitted mistakes that cumulate to crisis. So for people fearing about the future of their wealth, investment in Infrastructure Innovations for sectors needed irrespective of economy’s situation and location in the world, alike waste, food logistics and clean energy at arms’ length competitiveness may be the best bet in uncertain times – so how about Carbotopia™?

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